José Maria de Mendonça Júnior, Coronel de Cavalaria do Exército Português.

Vivência Militar: Portugal, Angola, França, Alemanha, Macau e Timor.

Condecorações: Serviços Distintos e Relevantes Com Palma, De Mérito, Avis, Cruz Vermelha, De Campanhas.

Vivência turística: Madeira, Açores, Espanha, Baleares, Canárias, França, Alemanha, Inglaterra, Italía, Suiça, Malta, Brasil, Paraguai, Marrocos, Moçambique, África do Sul, Zimbabwe, Indonésia, Singapura, Austráia, Filipinas, China.

Idiomas: português (de preferência), Espanhol, Francês, Inglês.

Com o fim de dinamizar a solidariedade através de comparticipação de cidadãos com inesquestionavél integridade de caracter.
 
Esta tese é enviada por http://senadonews.blogspot.com/ podendo ser correspondida pelo e-mail senadonews@gmail.com ou pelo correio postal: União Ibérica, Av. Bombeiros Voluntários, 66, 5º Frente, 1495-023 Algés, Portugal; Tel: 00 351 21 410 69 41; Fax: 00 351 21 412 03 96.

Pesquisá pelo google.pt ou pelo sapo.pt

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

COMENTÁRIOS DO NEWSWEEK (II)


(*) Mendonça Júnior
Julgo ser do maior interesse publicar extractos, com a devida vénia, do que aqui transcrevo em itálico: como sendo a razão de ser de alguns dos mais notáveis comentaristas da revista Newsweek, December 2008-February 2009, relativos a acontecimentos dos finais do século passado e algumas previsões com vista à actual administration do próximo presidente dos Estados Unidos.

Dado o interesse que despertou a iniciativa vou continuar.

TALK TOUGH WITH TEHRAN, BY DENNIS ROSS
U.S. policy toward Iran has failed – yet it´s not to late to block the Persian bomb.

Everywhere you look in the Middle-East today, Iran is threatening U.S. interests and the political order.
The U.S. sanctions adopted in the past three years apply primarily to Iran´s nuclear and missile industries and haven´t targeted its economy.
That´s given Tehran the luxury of ignoring them.
Hitting the economy more directly would force Tehran to make a choice.
Iran has profound economic vulnerabilities: import 43% of its gasoline, and its oil and natural-gas industries – the government´s key of source of revenue, which it uses to buy off its population desperately need huge amounts of new investment and technology. Iran also faces high inflation and unemployment.
Tough sanctions that exploit these problems would force Iran´s leaders to see the high costs – as they measure them – of not changing their nuclear behavior.
The irony is that the more Washington shows it´s willing to engage Iran directly, the more these other parties especially the Europeans, will feel comfortable ratcheting up the pressure.
So the next president will have to provide Iran with inducements compelling enough to convince it that Iran will profit significantly by forgoing nuclear weapons.
Such statecraft is needed now to avoid two terrible outcomes: living with a nuclear Iran, or acting militarily to try to prevent it.

WINNING IN AFGHANISTAN BY ANDREW J. BACEVICH
Victory there won´t look like you think. Time to get out and give up on nation building.

In Afghanistan today, the United States and its allies are using the wrong means to vigorously pursue the wrong mission.
Persisting on the present course – as both John McCain and Barack Obama have promised to do – will turn Operation Enduring Freedom into Operation Enduring Freedom Obligation.
Afghanistan will become a sinkhole consuming resources neither the U.S. military nor the U.S. government can afford to waste.
The allied campaign in Afghanistan is now entering its eighth year.
Afghanistan is a much big country – nearly the size of Texas – and has a larger population that´s just as fractions.
The basis of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan should therefore become decentralization and outsourcing, offering cash and other emoluments to local leaders who will collaborate with the United States in excluding terrorists from their territory.
But U.S. power – especially military power – is quite limited these days, and U.S. priorities lie elsewhere.
Rather than committing more troops, therefore, the new president should withdraw them while devising a more realistic – and more affordable – strategy for Afghanistan.

NURTURE THE UNPREDICTABLE BY VINOD KHOSLA
Economic growth will depend on quirky entrepreneurs, not incumbent corporations.

Today, the world is in the midst of an economic, social crisis and environmental that is overturning much conventional wisdom.
The best course of action is to tackle it head-on with new ideas and paradigms, fostering an environment that rewards creativity and encourages “black swans”.
What is a black swan?
Its an event that as “rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability”.
Black swans can transform an industry, but my focus recently has been on energy – an area that has been ignored for too long.
Energy is a crucial part of any nation´s economic and security agenda and in dire need of transformation.
The only way this transformation will happen is through technology black swans that rid us of our dependence on oil and dirty coal.
If the 9 billion people who will likely populate the planet in 2050 are to have a standard of living similar to the best-off 500 million people today, the world must generate a lot more energy.
The only way will be to promote a clean-energy black swan.
We must realize the difference between “incumbency capitalism” and incumbency capitalism” and “innovative capitalism” rules.
We must have new rules that encourage competition and innovation.
The best way to predict the future is to invent. Toward that goal, we may try and fail, but let´s not fail to try.

TIME TO KILL THE OIL BEAST BY MICHAEL T. KLARE
America´s overreliance on petroleum is the source of all its energy problems.

If the recent presidential campaign demonstrated anything, it was that Americans want and expect the next president to make dramatic changes in U.S. energy policy.
Americans want to see a substantial reduction in their country´s reliance on imported oil – especially from hostile countries or those perceived as posing a significant security threat, such as the nations of the Middle-East or Russia and Venezuela.
With concern over global warming growing, Americans also want to see,
a large increase in reliance on renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power.
And they want any progress on the energy front to create jobs and economic opportunities jobs at home, rather than in foreign countries.
But the United States no longer produces enough oil to sustain the civilization – yet it continues to rely on petroleum for a huge proportion of its energy needs.
This dependence on oil is much higher than that of any other major country – France, Germany and Japan, for example.
Because most of the reserves in the countries the United States once relied on have now also been exhausted or soon will be, it must rely increasingly on supplies in the Middle-East, Africa and Center Asia, where it faces both recurring conflict and growing competition from other oil consumers, including China.
Instead of competing with China for access to oil, the United States could cooperate with the Middle Kingdom in developing alternative-energy systems.
Americans can do it – and do so in a spirit of amity and compromise – if they know where they are headed and have a bold president ready to lead from them.

WE´RE IN FOR STORMY WEATHER BY BAN KI-MOON
Overshadowed by the economic headlines, serious climate trouble looms ahead.

Everyone knows about the accelerate melting of Artic sea ice.
Our planet´s species are going extinct at an unprecedented rate.
Incidents of extreme weather, such as the hurricanes that devastated Haiti and Myanmar, have grown more frequent.
Nothing can happen without global leadership and unity of purpose.
The important thing is to act, and to act now.
When it comes to climate change, it´s make-or-break time.

HOW TO WEAN THE U.S. OFF OIL BY T. BOONE PICKENS
Natural gas - cheap, clean and readily available
– holds the key to lasting change.

Three principal issues will face the new U.S. administration in 2009.
The first will be the economy.
The second will be national security.
And the third issue will be energy.
But thanks to new technologies for natural-gas recovery, the United States has a supply that should last more than 100 years
Add Canada´s reserves, and the number goes higher.
Domestic oil supplies may be decreasing, but North America enjoys an increasing abundance of natural gas.
But America can´t afford to continue paying the economic and security costs imposed by its reliance on foreign oil.
It´s time for a change.

THE ENIGMA IN CHIEF BY JACOB WEISBERG
It´s still a mystery how or why Bush made the key decisions of his administration.

As George W. Bush once noted, “You never know what your history is going to be like until long after you´re gone”.
What I think he was trying to say is that, over time, historians may evolve toward a more positive view of his presidency than the one held by most of his contemporaries”.
Probably the biggest question Bush leaves behind is about the most consequential choice of his presidency:
his decision to invade Iraq.
When did the president make up his mind to go to war against Saddam Hussein ?
What were his real reasons?
What roles did various figures around him – Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Condoleeza Rice – play in the actual decision?
Now that the country is rid of Bush, perhaps we can start developing a more nuanced understanding of how his presidency went astray.
His was no ordinary failure, and he leaves not just an unholy mess but also some genuine mysteries.

(*) Coronel de Cavalaria

NOTA: os negritos são da minha responsabilidade.

EDITORIAL
Temas e Debates
– Mendonça Júnior, e-mail:
mendoncajunior24@gmail.com
– Senado News, site:
http://senadonews.blogspot.com/ e-mail: senadonews@gmail.com
– União Ibérica, site:
http://uniaoiberica.blogspot.com/ e-mail: uniaoiberica.federacao@gmail.com
– Liga da Amizade Luso Espanhola-LALE, site:
http://ligaamizadelusoespanhola.blogspot.com/ e-mail: lale.amizade@gmail.com

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