José Maria de Mendonça Júnior, Coronel de Cavalaria do Exército Português.

Vivência Militar: Portugal, Angola, França, Alemanha, Macau e Timor.

Condecorações: Serviços Distintos e Relevantes Com Palma, De Mérito, Avis, Cruz Vermelha, De Campanhas.

Vivência turística: Madeira, Açores, Espanha, Baleares, Canárias, França, Alemanha, Inglaterra, Italía, Suiça, Malta, Brasil, Paraguai, Marrocos, Moçambique, África do Sul, Zimbabwe, Indonésia, Singapura, Austráia, Filipinas, China.

Idiomas: português (de preferência), Espanhol, Francês, Inglês.

Com o fim de dinamizar a solidariedade através de comparticipação de cidadãos com inesquestionavél integridade de caracter.
 
Esta tese é enviada por http://senadonews.blogspot.com/ podendo ser correspondida pelo e-mail senadonews@gmail.com ou pelo correio postal: União Ibérica, Av. Bombeiros Voluntários, 66, 5º Frente, 1495-023 Algés, Portugal; Tel: 00 351 21 410 69 41; Fax: 00 351 21 412 03 96.

Pesquisá pelo google.pt ou pelo sapo.pt

Monday, January 26, 2009

COMENTÁRIOS DO NEWSWEEK (I)


(*) Mendonça Júnior
Julgo ser do maior interesse publicar, com a devida vénia o que aqui transcritos em itálico, a razão de ser de alguns dos mais notáveis comentaristas da revista Newsweek, December 2008-February 2009, relativos a acontecimentos dos finais do século passado e algumas previsões com vista à actual administração do próximo presidente dos Estados Unidos.

HOW TO SAVE DEMOCRACY, BY Larry Diamond:
Bush gave democracy promotion a bad name.
The next administration has to get it right.

It´s easy today to forget
how far freedom has advanced in the past 30 years.
When the wave of liberation began in 1974 in Portugal
, barely a quarter of the world´s states met the minimal test of democracy.
Thanks to misrule and popular discontent, the breathtaking democratic wave that swept the world at the end of the 20th century has reversed course.
This isn´t to say there haven´t been a few heartening successes in recent years.
Indonesia,
the world´s most populous Muslin country, has become a robust democracy nearly a decade after its turbulent transition from authoritarian rule.
Brazil, under the left-leaning Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has also strengthened its democratic institutions while maintaining fiscal discipline and a market orientation and reducing poverty.
In Africa, Ghana has maintained a quite liberal democracy while generating significant economic growth, end several smaller African countries have moved in this direction.
If they don´t strengthen their political institutions, reduce corruption and figure out how to govern more effectively, many of these democracies could fail in the coming years.
Instead of advancing freedom and democracy in the Middle East, 2005 and 2006 witnessed a series of embarrassing shocks:
Hams
winning in the Palestinian territories and Islamist parties wining in Iraq; Hizbullah surging in Lebanon
and the Muslim Brotherwood surging in Egypt.

After a brief moment of optimism, the United States backed away and Middle Eastern democrats grew embittered.
Finally, the new president should keep in mind the power of example. Washington can´t promote democracy abroad if it erodes it at home.

WHERE BUSH WAS RIGHT, By DAVID FRUM:
Both candidates ran against him. But on a few issues they´d do well to follow W.

Yet there are some things the next president shouldn´t change. George W. Bush hasn´t gotten much good press in recent years, but he´s accomplished some important things that the next president would do well to preserve and extend.
Consider three in particular:
1. The emerging U.S.-India strategic partnership;
2. A more equal partnership with Latin America;
3. The determination to do counterinsurgency right.

The administration made mistakes in Iraq.
But the new president
should know that if the last one could do it in Iraq, surely he can do it in Afghanistan.

BRINGING CHINA INTO THE FOLT, BY RICHARD N. HAASS:
The single biggest challenge for the new president will be to get Beijing to play by the rules. Here´s how.

When the 44TH president of the united states arrives in the Oval Office this January, he´ll find his inbox stuffed with urgent problems, including mounting disarray in Afghanistan and Pakistan, nuclear advances in Iran and North Korea a resurgent Russia and a worldwide economic crises. How he deals with such immediate troubles will help determine the success of his presidency. Yet there’s an adage common in business and management literature he’d be wise to keep in mind: “Don’t let the urgent crowd out the important.”
Despite the urgency of the problems listed above, the single most important challenge for the new administration – one with the potential to determine the character of the 21st century – is China and U.S-China relations.
A BILLION-PLUS MODELS: How Chinese people choose to live will affect us all suddenly sold its dollars for euros of other currencies or commodities. Both sides also need political stability. Neither wants to go to war over Taiwan, to see another conflict on the Korean Peninsula or to see world oil prices double as a result of a military strike on Iran´s nuclear program.
Even if all this happens, China and the United States aren’t likely to become allies.
Both countries have a stake in such an arrangement.
Trying to bring it about – integrating China into the highest councils of the 21st century – should be a top priority for the new president and his team.

OUT IN THE WORLD, BY MINXIN PEI
China is ready to become a good citizen but on its own terms.

For years Western leaders have been trying to figure out how to integrate China into the international system.
It turns out that the Western debate has paralleled or inside China itself.
Party leaders know that, like it or not, accepting a bigger global role is necessary.
UP,UP,UP: Beijing remains focused first on maintaining the country´s development.
Now that the global balance of power has shifted in their favor, striking deals will be still be possible – but the costs may be much higher.

GETTING INDIA TO ACT ITS SIZE, BY SHEKHAR GUPTA
India increasingly thinks like a great power. The trick is encouraging it to become like one.

India has begun to recognize that its real clout comes not only from its size but also from the durability of its democratic institutions and its economy.
Once the dust from the current crises settles, the world will return to more longterm concerns: reviving the WTO, climate-change negotiations and nuclear nonproliferation.
And the new U.S. president will have to do learn do business with them, no matter how bafflingly complex that proves to be.

BUSH´S VERY DANGEROUS DEAL, BY JOSEPH Cirincione
The U.S.-India pact has been hailed as a triumph. It was just the opposite.

IN 1974 INDIA USED a small reactor bought from Canada for civilian research to make plutonium.
Its scientists secretly shaped the metal into a bomb and exploded it in what India called “a peaceful nuclear test”.
India got the privileges of a nuclear-weapons state without the responsibilities.
If it sounds like a tall order, it is.
But should the president fail, future generations may well look back at the U.S.-India deal the way others looked back on the Missouri Compromise or Treaty of Versailles: as political power plays that paved the way to war.

STOP BAITING THE BEAR, BY MICHAEL MANDELBAUM
Fixing relations with Russia will take undoing a dozen years of Western missteps.

LONG TIME COMING: Russia´s attack on Georgia last summer was the product of years of tension over NATO expansion is a mutual-defense pact.
In the next decade or two the continuing development of free-market institutions and practices, in Russia will have a salutary impact on its politics: such institutions and practices, when transferred to the political sphere, can promote democracy.
Long-term trends may therefore produce positive changes in Russia that will make it possible to resume a cooperative relationship in the meantime, however, things will remain difficult.
The next president won´t be able to fix relations completely. He should therefore concentrate on not making them worse.

FORGING A NEW PARTNERSHIP BY SERGEY LAVROV
Russia and the United States must work together in a multipolar world.

As Putin later declared, “in the name of Russia, I want to say to the American people: we are with you.”
Unfortunately, after September 11, Washington – apparently at the insistence of lower-level officials – chose to largely ignore international alliances.
This time, we hope the entire new U.S. administration will recognize the need for such cooperation – and the need to rebuild America´s credibility.
Russia would prefer to rebuild trust rather than allow it do further corrode.
That´s why, in July 2007. President Putin, in the spirit of strategic openness, proposed a truly collective effort at a missile defense for Europe.
The proposal remains on the table, and we hope the new administration considers it.
The West has clear choices to make.
We hope that this new opportunity will not be brushed aside.
If we’ve learned anything from the past eight years, it´s that no nation alone can bring security to the world,
But if we try, we can do it together.

PULL THOSE BOOTS OFF THE GROUND, BY JOHN J. MEARSHEIMER
The best strategy for a critical region is to withdraw the troops and return to balance-of-power politics.

AS THE NEW PRESIDENT TAKES OFFICE, THE UNITED STATES is in deep trouble in the Middle East.
Despite Obama´s promises to withdraw from Iraq, the debacle there shows no sign of ending soon, and is has made America´s terrorism problem worse, not better.
Meanwhile, Hamas rules in Gaza, Iran´s stature is on the rise and Tehran is quickly moving to acquire a nuclear deterrent – which, despite a lot of tough talk, the United Stares and its allies have been unable to prevent. And America´s image throughout the Middle East is at an all-time low.
Instead of threatening Iran in preventive war – an approach that´s only fueled Teheran’s desire for nuclear weapons and increased the popularity of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – the new administration should try to cut a deal offering Iran security guarantees in return for significant and verifiable limits on its nuclear-enrichment program.
The United States should also take its sights off the Assad regime in Syria and push both it and Israel to reach a peace agreement.
It would also be considerably less expensive in both human and financial terms.
There are no foolproof strategies in international politics, but offshore balancing is probably as close as we can get.

(*) Coronel de Cavalaria
NOTA: os negritos são da minha responsabilidade.

EDITORIAL
Temas e Debates
– Mendonça Júnior, e-mail:
mendoncajunior24@gmail.com
– Senado News, site:
http://senadonews.blogspot.com/ e-mail: senadonews@gmail.com
– União Ibérica, site:
http://uniaoiberica.blogspot.com/ e-mail: uniaoiberica.federacao@gmail.com
– Liga da Amizade Luso Espanhola-LALE, site:
http://ligaamizadelusoespanhola.blogspot.com/ e-mail: mailto:lale.federacao@gmail.com

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home